NAA Inside Elections

MARCH 10, 2025 - VOLUME 9, NO. 5

2026 House Overview:
The Fight of the Cycle
By Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin

The GOP majority in the House is at risk and will likely be the most consequential battle in 2026, while Senate Republicans might be insulated from a midterm backlash. Typically, midterm elections go poorly for the president’s party, particularly in the House. Winning parties prematurely declare a mandate, overreach, and voters respond by sending more members of the “out” party to Washington as a check and balance. With President Donald Trump’s aggressive first few weeks in office, history may repeat itself. Support for Trump’s policies on government efficiency, tariffs, and foreign policy will wane if his actions start to hurt people’s everyday lives. Economic decline or instability and questions about national security, will likely excite Democratic voters, turn off independents, and temper GOP enthusiasm. Republicans already faced the challenge of turning out Trump voters when Trump isn’t on the ballot.

Democrats need a net gain of three seats for a House majority, but (READ FULL ARTICLE HERE)